Petri Dish Earth

A useful analogy to demonstrate the inevitably of a halting of growth is the Petri dish. To understand where the world is heading with a continuous growth paradigm one only needs to understand what happens to the bacteria in the Petri dish. For a while the bacteria are happily multiplying, consuming food and generating waste in the process. The culture is growing, and at an astounding rate -- a fast-forward version of society. But the party doesn't last. Eventually the resources start to run out and waste products build up to toxic levels. The bacteria may or may not then proceed to die off completely, but with absolute certainty it will stop growing.

While reading a post on GristMill about the future of coal, in a lively debate at the bottom of the page, I found a link to a document from which the above was extracted. For anyone who hasn't given thought to exponential growth and the currently proclaimed goals of annual GDP growth which translates to energy growth, this document is an essential read. It starts by very simplistically working up the math and examples to describe periods of growth when combined with exponential (year on year) percentage rates. The author then applies this mathematics basis to the problem of the projected growth rate of global energy consumption and estimated reserves of non-renewable, and supplies of renewable energy resources available.

While one of the examples sounds promising, that the total solar energy input into our planet could provide enough energy to supply energy growth at projected rates for the next 490 years. This example overlooks that not all of the solar energy falling on the planet can be converted to energy to drive machines. Some portion of it must be used for other resources such as food, and other natural systems of our little petri dish. Energy required to power the scrubbers that take care of at least some of those waste products that all of us living organisms create.

The author theorizes that at some point, consumption growth, which drives energy growth and economic growth, will reach zero percent. As he continues, stopping growth isn't going to be enough. A reversal must occur, consumption growth must be checked now in order to make a meaningful change to the outlook. His belief is that regulation is the key, that government must step forward and take the responsibility because the market can or will not.

Growth will stop; but it won't be stopped by the popularly advocated means of saving the earth which don't address the real sources of growth. Whether it be relating to electricity, transport fuels, water, arable land or the climate change contribution of flatulent sheep, any plan of action which fails to address the infinite problem of continuous growth is doomed to failure and is only postponing the inevitable. It is worse than that though because the misplaced virtue masks and diverts attention away from the real source of the problem.

Ties into the question asked in a recent GristMill post, "is a sustainable world even plausible if we continue to accept a monetary system that must grow without end?"

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While reading, I was wondering about energy consumption growth and came up with the following thoughts.

Is there maximum amount of energy that humans can consume. Can we as a species deploy enough energy intensive things that could require that much energy? Probably not in any meaningful term. The only limit is going to be how much our species can harness. At some point, there will be a reckoning and no new energy sources will be harnessed, and we will have to live with what we have, by turning things off, or becoming more efficient.

I would guess that this will in 80 to 120 years. By then, the prospect of running out of coal will be very real, if not already reality, global climate change will be obvious, and many other over-consumption side-effects will have taken place. So many things will have gone wrong, that humans will have no choice but to realize that there are limits and growth must stop, and perhaps reverse. Hopefully, we'll step back from the brink, and every home, block, neighborhood, and/or village will be its own power island, with a mix of local energy sources to supply it, our devices will be extremely efficient, and everyone will live within their energy means, only relying on a grid to cover shortages.

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evo - green products and services marketplace

For those looking for a little assistance with shopping for products that qualify as green (sustainable, organic, low polluting, etc.), the evo, in beta, site may be for you.

The site has articles discussing the benefits and impacts of various products and materials, such as organic cotton and low energy lighting. Companies are rated as well as products for the greenness of their products and services. Product coverage is broad, going from clothing, to home lighting, to vehicles (Hybrid, High Fuel Efficiency conventional, diesels, electric scooters), to carbon offsetting and many others.

They also have neat little "Green Your Tree" quiz you can do that rates how green you are and puts colored leaves on a tree. For each quiz question answered their is also an explanation provided for why the question is considered to have a green impact. For instance: What percentage of the wardrobe is made up of synthetics? Impact: "Ditch that 70's look. Polyester and other synthetics use about 3.4 lbs
(about 1/2 gallon) of petrochemicals for about 7 yards of fabric.
Unlike cotton, polyester is not biodegradable." As well as links to products and articles on the site related to the question.

At the end of the profile links to save the tree, continue adding more profile questions or show recommendations is given. Additional questions are made available each day. I'm not sure what the benefit of them tracking and assigning colored leaves based on the responses is other than a little bit of fun.

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e2: Episode 4

The fourth episode of e2 is now available online, and should be airing on local PBS stations this week.

In this episode, an examination of growing crops to reduce the use of petroleum products is examined. The first half of the episode examines the conditions that led to the creation of the sugarcane based ethanol industry in Brazil, as well as technological improvements that were introduced by auto manufacturers when ethanol availability became an issue. The episode seems to present Brazil's sugarcane industry as a panacea, and doesn't discuss any of the costs or trade-offs of growing sugarcane, its impact on the rain forest, its sustainability as an industry. I pretty sure that Brazil has to keep cutting more rain forest in order to make room for more sugarcane as the older fields become less productive. Another cost, as is pointed out later in the discussion of US ethanol, is the energy required to grow the crops in the first place. Is it the case that sugarcane is an "easy" crop to grow and only requires planting and harvesting and doesn't require intensive care as corn does?

The second half of the episode discusses the US responses to the oil shocks of the 1970's, and how there has been no lasting impact on US government or energy policy to address the growing use of petroleum. The 70's oil shocks saw the creation of the CAFE standards, which are a popular topic for the current energy bill, and campaign rhetoric, yet once the oil shocks were over, average fuel efficiency went lower than Henry Ford's original Model T.

The episode doesn't directly discuss issues of using food for fuel, but
does acknowledge that this issue does exist, and suggests that corn may
simply be a temporary product while cellulosic ethanol sources are
perfected and industrialized. The commentators do point out that it is primarily political clout that has shaped energy policy and subsidy systems that have led to the inefficient and questionable corn based ethanol industry of the US. As one commentator pointed out, we don't have enough land to grow a corn crop large enough to replace gasoline as the fuel of choice in our vehicles.

Assuming ethanol is the right answer for our dependence on gasoline to fuel our vehicles, automakers are going to need to implement the "$15" change to all engines to make them capable in same way that Brazil's are of running any fuel blend. And it begs the question, if it is so inexpensive to implement in Brazil, why isn't it a standard part of every vehicle sold? Why isn't congress making a requirement of flex fuel compatibility part of energy policy? The technology already exists, and would probably only take a few years (under 4?) to deploy to every vehicle sold. if there is a commitment to an ethanol future, wouldn't it make sense to lower the bar for fuel makers to know that there is a guaranteed market for ethanol blends?

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TreeHugger pointer at NYT articles on Green Autos

The New York Times has a nice round up titled "Greening the Car Industry" up. Links to various NYT articles can be found in this TreeHugger article.

LED Lighting

Read an article on TreeHugger that summarized an article on Green Talk. Mostly they're discussing commercial applications, which are more ready for the market than residential uses, but I decided to check out residential LED options.

After doing some research on LED light bulbs, I think there is some disingenuous thinking and comparison going on. As far as I can tell, the standard/best LED replacement bulb produces about 120 lumens. The equivalent of a 25 watt light bulb. This would work well in an area where multiple bulbs are already in use, such as a vanity cabinet, or a ceiling lamp/fan fixture with multiple bulbs. Of course, these are applications where the quality of the light is probably more important.

One of the comparisons I've seen repeatedly is that a single LED bulb will save $250-350 over its lifetime, compared to a standard bulb. One such comparison was between a 2W LED bulb and a 60W incandescent. Of course, the comparison didn't point out that to get a similar lumen rating, it would take 6-8 LED bulbs, thereby raising both the upfront costs, and the operating costs. And the need to find additional fixtures to put all those additional bulbs in. Not counting the cost of fixtures, this reduces the savings to $25-$120 over the course of the life of the bulb. Most of that cost is in the initial purchase the bulbs. At those costs, adoption is only going to occur among the hard core with money. CFL's per bulb price point is going to make them much more attractive, though there are still some light quality issues that I've observed in the few that I've installed.

LED lighting needs to make an advance in 3 areas: cost per bulb, per bulb output and light quality, and as one of the commenters on TreeHugger said, "And by the time WalMart and friends have successfully switched the masses to CFLs, it'll be time to re-educate everyone on how wasteful CFLs are compared to the next generation LEDs".

Want to see some LED lighting vendors and prices?
C. Crane
SuperBrightLEDs

Rhode Island Energy Efficiency Expo

I had the opportunity to visit the energy expo sponsored by the Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources. It was a small setup, with about 30-40 booths inside the ballroom, several BioDiesel vehicles and a fuel cell powered Model T in the carport, and a biodiesel powered tractor-trailer with a travelling museum display about the history of the Northern woodlands and woodland products, industries, livelihoods of New York and New England.

The most interesting thing that I saw and spoke with a one of the booth staff about was the BioHeating Oil. Currently certified for use by UL in oil furnaces is a B5 blend, meaning 5% vegetable or soy oil with 95% traditional home heating oil. The representative (from hudsonecofuel (website in beta, it will be up soon I was assured) was confident that it was only a matter of time before B10, B15 and B20 blends were certified by UL for use in furnaces, just as occurred in BioDiesel blends. Unfortunately, I was unable to stay until 3pm when the gentleman from the booth was to give a presentation.

I didn't ask about the composition, but I got the impression that generally the blend is being made from virgin soybean oil, though they did have samples of used fryolator oil and the cleaned and refined cooking oil.

Only three vendors are offering BioHeating oil in the state right now. One of them has B100 (100% oil from vegetable sources), which you can then custom blend in the tank to get whatever blend the homeowner is comfortable with. The only warning he had however, was that it was best to start with a B5 blend, as the vegetable oil acts as a solvent. This is a problem for older oil storage tanks due to the debris that collects in the tank over time from the bacteria that are naturally found in heating oil settling out. The vegetable oil starts to break this down and can cause the filter to clog as the tank cleans out. His recommendation was to have a spare filter on hand, and run B5 for a month before upping the blend to B10 up to B20 by managing the amount of BioHeating oil delivered.

So, lesson - make sure to have a spare filter on hand, you will clog the filter when switching to a fuel with a Bio component.

I didn't get any information on pricing compared to traditional heating oil.

The companies offering BioHeating Oil in Rhode Island:
T.H. Malloy
White Fuel
Guardian Fuel and Energy Systems

I also spoke with a woman at the New England GreenStart booth. They have a heating oil cost assistance program that anyone who chooses them as their electricity generator (not deliverer, thats going to be National Grid). The idea is that while a consumer may pay slightly more for their electricity, through People's Discount Heating Oil Service, the increased electricity cost can be offset with with discounts on home heating oil at 15 to 30 cents/gallon. Membership is $20/year in the program. When signing up, the consumer is paired with a participating oil provider, including a BioHeating Oil option.

Otherwise, there were the usual fair of energy efficiency products on display: Windows, hot water heater, solar hot water heaters, PV systems, ground water heat exchange, home energy and air infiltration testing. The local energy utility, National Grid, had a large number of booths, advocating home energy efficiency testing, appliance purchase assistance for more energy efficient appliances.

Reducing unwanted catalogs and junk mail

One of the things that I've tried to do since we moved to New England is to start getting off of all of the unwanted catalog lists. So far I think I've called about 80 catalogs, and not had a single issue. Some of the customer service reps have even been kind enough to take the time to perform the removal process from associated catalogs and customer sell lists.

When still living in PA, I had gone to the Direct Marketing Assocations web site and entered a removal request with them. I recall paying the $1 fee at the time to sign up for their MPS service. This seemed to work well. I also used the OutOutPreScreen site to remove us from preapproved credit card mailings. Credit Card offers stopped appearing, except from merchants with whom we had a regular relationship/account with (REI is one that comes to mind).

The only mailings I haven't had any success with stopping is the weekly ShopWise flier. At some point I had found a way that was supposed to act as a removal for this, but it never worked while we were in PA. Haven't tried again.

At the same time, a local newspaper sends out a Jobs supplement that is delivered every friday. I'm not sure how to get off of that one yet. I also received a catalog from a bookseller that offered no phone number, either in the catalog, or on the website. They did have a web contact form, which I used to ask to be removed. They website claimed that they would respond to the form via US Mail. I haven't seen anything from them, but it may have gotten recycled already by the other mail sorter in the house.

I was reminded of this ongoing project when I was forwarded a link to the GreenDimes site. This company is selling a $15 kit that claims to reduce mail by up to 90%. They include instructions on using the DMA site to sign up for Mail Preference Service (MPS), and then GreenDimes will monitor the MPS to make sure your address stays off their lists. One testimonial even states that the GreenDimes customer no longer received a weekly grocery flier, which sounds like the ShopWise mailing. They also pay to plant to 10 trees for each junk mail reduction kit purchased.

After already spending a month doing the call the merchants thing, I'll probably let it be until the pile begins accumulating again. Then I'll give them a try and see how well it work.

More things I do to be Environmentally Conscious

I missed some items in my earlier post:

• Dry towels, sheets and clothing on a clothes line instead of in the dryer weather permitting. I think in the past 3 months 50% of the laundry I've washed has been dried outside on a line.
• Turn off all unused devices/wallwarts using master switches on surge strips.
• Call catalog companies and ask to be removed from their catalog mailings and address sell lists. This one isn't that hard and generally takes about 3 minutes per catalog. In the past month I've easily called about 80 catalogs. I've never been given any grief or pressured to stay on the list. I just save them up and when there's a small stack, spend a half an hour calling the customer service numbers.
• Donate unused clothing to Goodwill, or another charity.
• Reuse non-wearable clothing as rags for cleaning up spills and other projects like bike maintenance.
• Unused household items offered on FreeCycle, Craiglist, or donated to Goodwill. Even old posters and odd items. One man's trash...
• Use the library to get most books instead of purchasing new books that will be read ony once from a bookstore or online merchant. If a book has a lasting reread value or seems value in some way, then purchase a personal copy.
• Use a movie rental service such as Netflix to view DVD's instead of purchasing them, unless they're going to be used repeatedly/frequently. I regret having purchased the B5 series now, because if I want to see them, I suspect that I could get them from Netflix for a very long time to come.
• Turn off computers at night when they aren't being actively used.
• Make sure as many electronics as possible that have a sleep mode are set to use it if they aren't plugged into a master switch that gets turned off regularly.
  

What I do to be Environmentally Conscious

Inspired by Vanessa of Green As A Thistle.

I'm not at a point where I can make the commitment that she has, but I think that I'm already doing many things that help. I did read one that I think I will add though: Lose the plastic wrap.

• Ride a bicycle for short errands that don't require carrying much. (a weeks groceries for 1 will fit into 2 large bicycle panniers).
• Walk short errands to anything less than a mile away that require carrying much.
• Biodegradable high efficiency laundry detergent
• High efficiency front loading washing machine
• Let it mellow when i remember and no guests are around
• Environmentally friendly/less-chemicaled personal hygiene products
• Shower only when necessary or on alternate days
• Wear clothing more than once, or until it is dirty (except undergarments)
• Environmentally friendly/natural cleaning products for hand washed dishes.
• Baking soda and vinegar for most household cleaning chores.
• Drive as fuel efficiently as practical (no hypermiling, but no gunning accelerations either, coast on hills if possible, turn engine off at long stops, etc.)
• Recycle everything that the local municipal recycling collection allows. Plastics 1 & 2, cardboard, paperboard, paper, just about any paper really.
• Use rags to clean up spills instead of paper towels.
• Use cloth napkins instead of paper.
• Reuse plastic baggies by washing them until they break down (gallon and quart zip top freezer bags)
• Take cloth bags to the grocery store instead of getting plastic bags on every trip.
• Purchase and use recycled paper products when possible (toilet paper, napkins, paper towels)
• Purchase products in the largest container that will be used before the product goes bad or is otherwise unusable in order to reduce the amount of packaging being used.
• Reuse lidded plastic containers that food comes in as storage containers for other products.
  

My goals:

1. Reduce the amount of waste going to a landfill. Most weeks this amounts to less than a 13 gallon trash bag per week for my wife and I.
2. Reduce the amount of material to be recycled, and recycle as much as practicable.
   
3. Purchase products that have a reduced impact on the environment or come from renewable sources.
4. Reuse anything that can be reused until it is no longer useful.
5. Reduce traffic congestion and Green House Gas generated directly by me, or on my behalf.
6. Be frugal while doing all of the above.
   

Green as a Thistle

People shouldn't feel as though they have to choose between living out the rest of their days in a hippie commune in the middle of a hemp crop with a composting toilet and living in a stylish urban condo with his and hers sinks. There's a big grey area in the green sphere, and so the most sensible thing to do is to simply be aware of what you eat, drink, wear, use and do on a regular basis, then decide what can be reduced and what can't, without obsessing over it. So go on a shopping spree, but maybe walk there and bring a tote bag; indulge in an ice cream sundae, but make it an organic one with fair-trade chocolate sauce -- and save a bite for me.

From National Post, by Vanessa Farquharson. She also has a blog.

If only more environmentalists could accept that notion. We each of us must decide the things that we can do while still living the lives that we want to have. Be it having a 5000 square foot house or an underground house off the grid. We need those environmentalists to be out their championing, but those of us who don't do everything perfectly are doing what we can.